August 17, 2008

Judgmental vs. non-judgmental trading systems

  Oh God, another question for me. I just can take this anymore ! Trading is indeed the hardest job one can do. I should have tried to become a rockstar. 


So, here we go: Am I a judgmental or a non-judgmental trader ? I'll try to answer this question over the next few weeks, but first of all:

Q: What is judgmental trading ?

A: "Judgmental approaches call upon the trader to make decisions within a given criteria or context, while non-judgmental systems are strictly mechanical."


Here are some advantages / disadvatages ( taken from Joe Dinapoli's book - Trading with Dinapoli levels)

Miths about non-judgmental trading : 

  1. Once you have developed your system, your research and your work is over. Stress is non-existemt since the decision-making process is out of your hands
  2. You don't have to monitor the markets anymore. 
  3. The system can generate an adequate income flow which will enable you to go to Fiji :)

The reality

  1. The work never ends. Your system will exceed the historical extremes ( discovered by back-testing) and you start "massaging" the parameters. In fact, you should have 2, 3 or maybe more systems. Then, regarding the stress: you will feel it when your system will dictate absurd orders. 
  2. Your system will start missing some big moves
  3. It's hard to get enough capital to fund four systems over a number of futures contracts. 

Miths about judgmental trading:

  1. You achieve a 90% win ratio 
  2. You live where you want, trade where you want 
  3. You turn a modest amount of money into a veritable mountain of pure finacial muscle. 

The reality:

  1. You learn from a pro, then from another, and although you find some real benefit here and there, you're just never able to achiever quite what you expected. 
  2. If you can't find a way to get profitable, your savings will be gone and you start wondering if you will become someone else's employee.
  3. You will be constantly focusing on the markets. You'll never get to Fiji, actually you'll start wondering " Is there a contract on Fiji ?"